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Deceleration worry for export

​In the first two quarters of the year, Vietnam's import and export continued to recover and grow after the difficulties of the Covid-19 epidemic. The import-export balance still maintains the position of export surplus, in which the export value has grown strongly over the same period, however, many difficulties and impacts due to the price situation and world movements are causing the exporting enterprises to worry.

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Wood production and export are in short of production orders

 

Entering the third quarter, the export growth rate is gradually slowing down compared to the beginning of the year, some industries and enterprises are not very optimistic.


 Growth rate slows down

In the first half of 2022, export sales of Vietnam in general as well as Dong Nai achieved good growth results. However, compared to the first months of the year, the growth rate in recent 2 months has slowed down. In Dong Nai, the trend of June and July export turnover slowed down due to a decrease in orders and a decrease in the volume of some export items. Export turnover in July 2022 in the province reached more than USD 2.24 billion, up only 2.5% compared to June and accumulated for 7 months, export turnover was more than USD 15.1 billion, up 11.1 % over the same period (this increase is lower than the national data).

In the first half of 2022, good export growth is due to Vietnam taking advantage of free trade agreements. According to enterprises, by the end of 2021, enterprises have received many orders for the first quarter and second quarter of 2022, so the first half of the year is the time when exports will continue to increase despite still facing many disadvantages.

However, in recent months, the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China's tightening of disease control... has made it much more difficult for the stability of the world economy, leading to the drop in demand. Most of the world economic research organizations have lowered their forecasts for global economic growth. The supply chain disruption also affected a number of large corporations in Vietnam, thereby affecting the overall export value.

​Timber, cashew nuts, textiles... are affected

In the overall export picture, some industries are most affected. First of all, let's talk about wood export. In July, the country's export value of wood and forest products reached USD 1.41 billion, down 5.5% compared to June 2022 and down 1.6% over the same period in 2021. For Dong Nai, the corresponding figure is more than USD 1.214 billion exported in 7 months, equaling 93.6% over the same period. Export of wood and forest products in 7 months of 2022 was low compared to the same period in 2021 and previous years mainly due to the increased high price of production materials and products (the cost of production materials and transportation increased sharply). countries tighten credit policies because inflation tends to increase, leading to a sharp decrease in consumer demand.

Similarly, cashew nut exports also declined. Dong Nai only exported nearly 154 million USD of cashew nuts to the world market in 7 months, reaching 78.8% over the same period in 2021. Output faced difficulties, cashew nut production and trading enterprises still face input costs increase too high, especially the cost of transportation both by land and by sea has increased much compared to before... This is also the story for the textile and garment industry, although there is still growth. However, for many enterprises, large export revenue does not mean profit because the cost is too high and corrosive.

According to the general perception of export enterprises, despite difficulties, they still make efforts, even considering the plan of breaking or losing capital, but still have to keep the market, employees and customers stable. To limit some of the difficulties, businesses tighten their wallets and control all costs to minimize the impact on costs.



Author: Nam Vu

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