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Prospects for export to recover in 2024

(News Portal – Dong Nai) - At the end of 2023, due to the current economy situation, Vietnam's exports and imports were declining compared to the same period last year. For the locality with many industrial parks and enterprises engaged in export and import activities such as Dong Nai, a decline in these indicators had greatly affected the overall development of the province. 

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Manufacturing activity at a supporting industry enterprise in Bien Hoa city 

The good news is that towards the end of the year, the prospect of import-export recovery becomes clearer when the markets in key countries stabilize. Enterprises also strive to take advantage of opportunities from signed FTAs and seek new, potential markets, creating momentum for exports to prosper in 2024.

The outlook is getting gradually brighter

On a national level, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, towards the end of the year, the recovery of Vietnam's exports becomes clearer. Although it has not yet achieved an increase compared to the previous year, the decline continues to slowdown from an actual decrease of 12% in the first half of 2023 about 4.6% in the entirety of 2023. From the above prospects and despite the fact that import-export activities in 2024 are forecasted to still face many risks and are difficult to predict, Vietnam still sets a target of total export turnover increasing by over 6% compared to 2023. Trade balance continued to have a surplus...

Similarly, the General Statistics Office of Vietnam conducted a survey with businesses on the situation of export orders in 2024, in which 22% of companies confirmed to have a higher number of new export orders; 45% of companies had stable new export orders and 33% of companies had a decrease in new export orders.

Regarding trends in the first quarter of 2024, about 24.6% of businesses expect to have an increase in new export orders; 46.8% are expected to remain the same and 28.6% of businesses are expected to decrease. In the difficult situation of key markets due to consumers in countries tightening spending, export turnover to African, Eastern European, Northern European, and Western Asian countries increased, proving that businesses have proactively found ways to sustain and develop. On the other hand, businesses have made good use of the opportunities brought by commitments in the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) to exploit their full potential and advantages.

In Dong Nai, in 2023, industrial production achieved low growth but still improved and recovered positively each quarter (the first quarter of 2023 decreased by 9.63% compared to the previous quarter, the second quarter of 2023 had an increase by 2.38%, the third quarter of 2023 increased by 1.85%, the fourth quarter of 2023 increased by 3.41%) and increased higher than the general rate of the whole country (around 2.3%).

The province's export activities continue to overcome difficulties, although they have not increased again compared to 2022, but the decline rate has reduced from nearly 19% in the first half of 2023 to more than 12% in the entirety of 2023. The trade balance continues to record a high trade surplus, contributing greatly to the country's trade surplus. In 2024, Dong Nai strives to increase export turnover by about 8% compared to 2023.

Continue to remove obstacles

According to the Import-Export Department of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, import-export activities in 2024 still face many risks and the outcomes are difficult to predict. The trend of trade protection appears more frequent as many countries have measures to bring investment back home, erecting trade barriers to protect and promote domestic production.

Developed markets like the EU focus on sustainable development, and are currently introducing many new regulations such as the Carbon Adjustment Mechanism, European Anti-Deforestation Regulations, ... which impact a number of aspects of our country's key export products, which requires Vietnamese businesses to change and adapt.

Mr. Mai Huu Tin, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Truong Thanh Furniture Corporation (in Binh Duong province), said that production regulations from developed countries pose a lot of challenges for businesses when bringing goods into the market. However, this is a game where businesses cannot stand aside, so each industry needs to be linked together to take advantage of common benefits and capabilities.

In addition, many businesses say they want to promote their products but have little information or contacts, so supporting businesses to participate in international fairs and exhibitions helps export businesses have more opportunities to expand their markets, findnew customers in major markets. "We look forward to connecting with domestic and foreign partners in a more convenient way so that small and medium-sized enterprises have the opportunity to cooperate and increase their sales," Mr. Le Xuan Thoi, Director of Astek Company Limited (Bien Hoa city) said. ​

Author: Bao Nguyen

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